Showing posts with label Economics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Economics. Show all posts

Sunday, March 11, 2007

The patterns aren't there, retard

There is something very stupid about suggesting a share's price or a sharemarket follows a pattern (ie formula). This "holy grail" idea of there being a pattern we can use to work out where a share or market is headed is contradictory. Basing our buying and selling decisions on discovered mathematical relationships in price movements DISTORTS THOSE VERY PATTERNS. To see why there must be no pattern, consider what would happen if there was one:
Suppose the formula predicted a share was to rise from $40 to $45. Nobody would ever sell the share below $45, then. So it wouldn't move from $40...and it wouldn't move to $45 either!! Therefore the market would not move as the formula predicted. The existence of the formula would destroy the possibility of it being correct. There may be a short-term strategy which yields greater than average returns, but it's not the holy grail you're after.